The P3 Update Magazine Blog

by Gordon Meyer

P3GizmoGuy@gmail.com

The recent box office success of “Avatar” once again brings up the issue of 3D as a long-term format both theatrically and on home displays.  Lots of pundits have been predicting that “Avatar” will do for 3D what “Star Wars” did for Dolby Stereo - and they may well be right!

3D has been around since the old stereopticons of the 19th Century and on the big screen (off and on) since the 1920s.  While consumers clearly enjoy the immersive qualities of 3D, its implementation has often been a major headache - literally - in previous implementations of the technology.

Although glasses are still necessary for most 3D motion picture and video displays, I have seen prototypes of 3D plasma displays at various trade shows that work without glasses.  Even though those technologies still have a way to go before they’re truly ready for prime time, they prove that it’s just a matter of time before we get good 3D without glasses.

In theatres, 3D seems to have finally come into its own.  I saw preliminary footage of Bob Zemeckis’ take on “A Christmas Carol” last May in 3D and was blown away by how effectively he used the format, not to mention the way current 3D projection technologies from Dolby and RealD eliminate the double images and eye strain I experienced with older 3D systems.  After almost 90 years, 3D in movies looks like it’s finally ready, and just about every major studio has 3D releases on its slate for 2010.

Now the reality of the business is that as important as a successful theatrical run is, it’s the DVD/BD release where a huge portion of the profits come from.  That means the studios have a vested interest in bringing the 3D experience into the home in ways that compare favorably to the theatrical experience.  Well, the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) have given the studios and consumer electronics industry their 2010 Christmas present a year early by announcing the standards and specs for 3D Blu-ray discs.

3D was a big topic of discussion at last month’s Blu-con Blu-ray conference held in Beverly Hills.  In fact, many of the panelists talked at length about how 3D will be one of the features that will help insure the longevity of the BD format because of its ability to deliver full 1080p resolution to both right and left images without compromising quality.  Although the final specs were still being refined, it was predicted that the BDA would formally announce those specs before the end of the year and they kept that promise.

Here’s some of what this announcement means.  First of all, the specs are display agnostic.  They can work with a manufacturer’s choice of display technologies, be it plasma, LCD, DLP, CRT or whatever acronym you choose.  The type of glasses you’d use - or even lack of glasses when the technology presents itself, is also open as far as the BDA’s specs are concerned.  And now that the formal specs have been announced, we’ll see plenty of prototypes for both 3D ready TVs and 3D capable Blu-ray players on display at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show with live product likely to be in stores next summer.

Don’t be surprised if Fox holds off on the DVD/BD release of “Avatar” until they can put it out in 3D on those new products.  And don’t be surprised if lots of folks invest in 3D TVs and BD players just to be able to see “Avatar” in 3D in their homes.

So how good does the home version of 3D look?  Panasonic ran a 10 minute demo reel at Blu-con that blew me away.  And let me tell you here and now, even though “Avatar” is getting the attention, from what I saw at that demo, it’s actually going to be sports that ultimately becomes the killer app for 3D in the home.

Initially, home delivery of high def 3D content is going to come almost entirely from Blu-ray.  But it’s only a matter of time before the technology comes out that will enable broadcasters to get on the 3D bandwagon and then watch out!  It WILL be the standard, just as 40 years ago we saw the transition from black & white to color TV and we’re now watching a similar transition to HD from standard def.  I predict that within 3-5 years of the first HD 3D broadcast, 3D will become the standard.  And in all likelihood, the broadcast specs will be backwards compatible with the just announced BD specs because the hardware manufacturers will already have that technology in place.

The future is in 3D.  Now’s the time to master its possibilities beyond the novelty of having spears hurtled past you as in the 3D flix of old.

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by Gordon Meyer

P3GizmoGuy@gmail.com

Not too long ago, the Digital Entertainment Group hosted Blu-con a one day panel all about Blu-rays. It was a fascinating day with tons of prognostication and self-analysis of the growing world of Blu-ray (BD). Now that the packaged media hi-def format wars have been over (it’s actually been close to two years when rival hi-def format HD-DVD got the death blow punch from Warner Bros.), the BD format continues to grow - and at a pace much faster than even the record breaking DVD in its first few years on the market.

But all these nay-sayers like to claim that the BD format will have a relatively short lifespan. I say nonsense. (Actually, in private I use a stronger phrase, but since this is a family publication…) The so-called geniuses who predict BD’s early demise in favor of downloads don’t take into account several factors.

1) It takes a tremendous amount of bandwidth to support 2 hours worth of 1080p video and multi-channel sound, especially at the 36 Mbit data rates that BD delivers. Not only do very few ISPs offer that kind of bandwidth, especially for consumer accounts, there’s a concern that the mushrooming demand on the Internet may put the entire Internet at risk because of capacity issues. Although some Net-savvy execs I’ve spoken with tell me that between the growing deployment of fiber optic cables with their much greater data capacity replacing coax and more efficient compression technologies, the Net will take care of itself, that growing reliance on compression technology means that you’re not likely to get the same level of quality from online delivery systems because the BD format does less compression.

2) You’re much less likely to get all the bonus content goodies that DVD and BD users have come to expect.

3) Most people like the kinesthetic feel of having a physical object on their shelves - like books or CDs. Packaged media tends to be an easier sell, especially when you’re talking about impulse buys, because it IS something you can actually hold in your hand. It’s real.

But at Blu-con, in panel after panel, it was also acknowledged that consumers want to be able to view their purchased video wherever and whenever they want, hence the growing popularity of digital copies, which the BD executives on all those panels consistently agreed was an increasingly important means of keeping consumers happy campers. And some studios are taking the concept of multiple formats in a single package a step further with the bundling of both BD and DVD versions in the same package. This way, consumers can feel confident that the disc they buy now won’t be rendered obsolete in the near future, even if they haven’t yet purchased a BD player, because the newer format is already there.

VHS came into the market in the mid-1970s and gained mass market penetration by the mid-80s. DVDs were introduced in 1997. By 2003, weekly DVD Video rentals began outnumbering weekly VHS cassette rentals, reflecting the rapid adoption rate of the technology in the U.S. marketplace. With the growing embrace of HD technology in the home, BD is fast on its way to replace DVD as the dominant packaged media format.

But like any other packaged media format, it is just a matter of time before BD is replaced by something else. An even higher definition format? Although theatrically, digital cinema is already inching its way from a 2K standard to 4K, the reason most people would notice a difference at all is because that image is being thrown onto a 20 foot high by 40 foot wide (or bigger) screen. Until it becomes both economically and logistically practical for consumers to have Jetson style wall sized displays, you’re not likely to notice an appreciable difference between BD’s 1K resolution and even the entry level digital cinema resolution of 2K.So what will the next generation of packaged media bring to the table that you don’t already have with BD? I’m guessing the very next generation of HD packaged media will simply be the same caliber of content on a different delivery vehicle - like a flash drive. But only when it becomes cheaper to manufacture than pressing those 6″ discs.

And even then, the packaging needs to be big enough to showcase enticing cover art and promotional blurbs and feel like something substantial in your hand and on your shelf. I personally think that the size of the current DVD and BD packaging has shrunk about as much as it can while still being big enough to serve as an effective marketing tool.Not only that, but remember that both the studios and the consumer electronics industry have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing and marketing the BD format. So it needs to remain out there long enough to reap a solid return on investment. Plus, if you replace one high def format with another too quickly, you piss off consumers who just spent mucho dinero on players and discs and run the risk of a costly format war. Nobody wants that. They want a stable platform.

So there you have it boys and girls. According to my rarely wrong crystal ball, the BD format is going to be with us for a while. How long? Who knows? But I’m going to say it’s likely to be at least 5-10 years before something significantly better comes out to replace it.

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by Gordon Meyer

p3GizmoGuy@gmail.com

While many people are counting their calendar days leading to New Year’s Eve, I’m looking a few days beyond that - to the week of January 7-10 and the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Actually for me, CES begins two days earlier with the first of several press events and receptions, all intended to pique the interest of an international cadre of journalists, bloggers and fellow techno-toy lovers.

So how is this relevant to P3 Update readers? You mean aside from the fact that just about everyone reading this blog and the magazine that hosts it is a potential customer for the thousands of companies exhibiting? (After all, TVs, DVD players, sound systems, cell phones and computers are all popular Santa requests no matter what industry you work in.) Well, the simple truth is, there are a lot of products at CES that can be really useful for readers of this publication, either as profession-specific tools or general productivity and entertainment tools. And, that’s what this blog has been all about since I launched it over the summer.

Interestingly enough, one company you’d normally only expect to see at an industry trade show have booths at CES - Tiffen. They’ll be showing off their new Dfx v2 software that “complements and expands the extraordinary creative control Tiffen optical filters bring to still, film and video, blurring the line between traditional and digital image control. Unlike other filter software, the Tiffen Dfx offers over 2000 standard and special effect filters that simulate the extensive range of Tiffen’s world-renowned optical filters, plus much more! And now, Dfx version 2.0 is available for Adobe Photoshop CS4 for Windows that operates in 64 bit.”

With HD cameras getting cheaper, we’re seeing more and more inexpensive cameras being used for professional shoots. And you know there’ll be plenty of those products on display - along with consumer-oriented editing and DVD authoring software that would have been state of the art for pros just a few years ago.

There’s also going to be plenty of floor space dedicated to multi-channel sound and HD displays where much of the films and TV shows crafted by P3 readers will end up being experienced by consumers. It’s good to be reminded of how “Joe Lunchbox” will see and hear what you make. Just as important, it’s good to be reminded that “Joe Lunchbox” is becoming increasingly sophisticated and demanding a consumer when it comes to the home entertainment experience.

3D is likely to be a big topic at the 2010 show. I’ll be talking about that in a separate blog entry, but know that I’ll be spending a good deal of my time on the show floor looking at all the nifty 3D TV prototypes that will be on display. Expect to see them at your local Best Buy probably during the second half of next year and promoted big time.

I’ll also be looking at lots of personal productivity products, including desktop and laptop PCs and smartphones. These are tools that we all have come to depend on for day to day business. Then there are just fun gadgets like LG’s solar powered Bluetooth speakerphone or Casio’s solar powered watch that automatically syncs itself up with the Atomic Clock in Denver several times a day for uber accurate timekeeping that I got a review units of at the 2009 CES.

Got some products or product categories you’d like me to check out for you? Just drop me a line at P3GizmoGuy@gmail.com. Meanwhile, I’m counting the days.

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